With the season approaching, I find myself looking more intently at the potential impact of some of the quarterbacks that could be considered “lower-tier,” that is to say ranked 17th or lower based on ADP. Of course, as you’re looking to draft your starting quarterback, these aren’t the guys you’re primarily looking for, but there may just be some gems as you’re looking to fill out your bench with reliable signal callers.

Injuries Hurt
Not everyone can draft Peyton Manning or Brett Favre, the NFL’s current iron men in regard to durability. Injuries happen and if you found yourself drafting Donovan McNabb or Trent Green last year, you’ll know that injuries can hurt. So the question arises as to which later-round quarterbacks are worth the gamble and which ones you should fold on.


Worth the Gamble

J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills 
(ADP- 118 or 20th QB, 4for4 QB Ranking- 17)
Losman made huge strides last year when given the reigns as Buffalo’s full-time starter. Of course his yards and touchdowns increased with added playing time (he only played in nine games in 2005), but what really impresses me is that his completion percentage increased from 49.6 percent in 2005 to 62.5 percent in 2006. Additionally, over that same span his quarterback rating increased twenty points from 64.9 to 84.9. The Bills have now upgraded their offensive line, they’ve drafted a marquee running back to cushion the loss of Willis McGahee, and they have one of the most exciting young pass catchers in the league in Lee Evans. All of this might just make J.P. Losman an excellent gamble.


Matt Schaub, Houston Texans 
(ADP- 110 or 17th QB, 4for4 QB Ranking- 21)
My initial thoughts on Schaub were that he was virtually the same player as David Carr last season. Both quarterbacks are pocket passers who have a tendency to make bad decisions and hold the ball too long. However, after further review, Schaub looks poised to have a solid season. He may not finish as a top ten QB, but top twelve or fifteen is certainly possible with Ahman Green, Ron Dayne, Owen Daniels, and Andre Johnson. The question is going to remain whether or not he can stay upright behind the Texans’ shaky offensive line, but now in their second year under Head Coach Gary Kubiak, they should improve enough to make Schaub worth a late round gamble.


Daunte Culpepper, Oakland Raiders 
(ADP- 147 or 27th QB, 4for4 QB Ranking- 32)
I know, Culpepper has yet to lock on to the starting position in Oakland and he hasn’t really played well since the 2004 season. However, remember what a great 2004 season that was? Culpepper threw for 4,717 yards and 39 touchdowns. If Peyton Manning hadn’t thrown 49 touchdown passes that season, Culpepper very likely would’ve been named the league MVP. I know that was a long time ago and he’s since gone through multiple surgeries to repair torn ligaments in his right knee, but I think that he may be in the perfect situation to rejuvenate his career. While he may not run much anymore, he’s still got a huge arm, and in Lane Kiffin’s offense, he just might be worth a gamble. He’s outplayed Josh McCown in the pre-season, and he seems to look poised and confident in the pocket. He also looks healthy. Draft Culpepper as a reserve, and he just might wind up being one of your starters.

Other Possible Late-Round Steals at Quarterback: 
Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Joey Harrington, Atlanta Falcons



Probably Not Worth the Risk

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers 
(ADP- 115 or 19th QB, 4for4 QB Ranking- 27)
Delhomme just doesn’t look like the same quarterback he was two or three years ago. There’s a reason David Carr was brought in, and I think that it’s just as likely for Carr to start ten games this season as it is for Delhomme to. Delhomme seems to hone in too hard on his hot routes, and his gutsy play is looking more like 37 year-old Brett Favre than like 27 year-old Brett Favre. He makes too many mistakes, doesn’t convert well on third down, and doesn’t have the security that he’s had in the past with Carr waiting in the wings. My advice is to leave Delhomme on the table and let someone else worry about how long he’ll be the Panthers starter.


Chad Pennington, New York Jets 
(ADP- 121 or 21st QB, 4for4 QB Ranking- 22)
Some people consider Pennington as a sleeper, but I think he’s more of the bust variety this season. He’s a good leader and a hard worker as evidenced by his comeback season in 2006. However, there are things that concern me about Pennington that leave him off my draft board. First of all, last season was the first year that he’s completed all 16 games in a season. Also, Pennington’s arm strength is sub-par at best, and that was before he tore his rotator cuff back in September of 2005. The arm strength didn’t seem to hurt him too badly last season, but I believe that with more game film to analyze this season, defenses will make him pay for his lack of zip. Lastly, Kellen Clemmons is nipping at his toes, and if he falters or begins to regress a little he may find himself backing up the former second round pick out of Oregon. Call it a feeling, call it crazy, but I’m leaving Pennington on the table this year.


Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings 
(ADP- 146 or 26th QB, 4for4 QB Ranking- 29)
Tarvaris Jackson may someday be the next Donovan McNabb. He’s certainly talented enough and he’s on a young team with a decent offensive line and a defense that will keep him in games. He’s not ready yet though. This is evidenced by the recent trade for Kelly Holcomb. The right decision to make is to let Jackson sit another year behind a veteran like Holcomb, give him a little playing time here and there, and ease him into his immense talent. I think that this was the idea in the Holcomb trade. Even if that’s not the case, and Head Coach Brad Childress sticks with Jackson all season, it’s hard to envision Jackson putting up good numbers with how raw he is, and with him possibly throwing to a couple of rookies (Sydney Rice, Aundrae Allison), a third receiver at best (Bobby Wade), and a former first round bust (Troy Williamson). Jackson may hold some value in keeper leagues, but for 2007, I say fold.

Other Quarterbacks I would leave on the table: 
Steve McNair, Baltimore Ravens; Charlie Frye, Cleveland Browns